2011 Stock Market outlook by Chief strategist Li Xin Jing

CAO we exit the trade and will wait for next opportunity

CAO- How we ride on profits with Fishnet!

CAO 20101107

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40% of Singapore Exchange brokers to co-locate with SGX engines

Singapore Exchange (SGX) today said 40% of its broking members, numerous proprietary trading firms and several vendors including crossing network operator Chi-East, have chosen its new co-location service months before its first-quarter 2011 launch.

By re-locating their trading applications to the new state-of-the-art SGX data centre, co- location customers can transact with SGX’s trading engine at the lowest possible latency. SGX will also house its market data and clearing infrastructure at the data centre.

SGX unveiled its co-location offering yesterday as part of a $250 million initiative to deliver the world’s fastest access to Asia. Customers will also have the opportunity to optimise on two other components of the investment.

These are SGX Reach — a new trading engine with the world’s fastest execution capability currently — and SGX hubs — local connectivity points to SGX at the key financial centres of Chicago, London, New York and Tokyo.

Rama Pillai, Head of Intermediaries and Market Access at SGX, says: “We are pleased that so many of our customers are joining our community as co-location pioneers. This community will be able to interact at ultra-low latency with SGX engines in a data centre developed to the highest standard (Tier-4).”

Pioneers of SGX’s co-location community include:
1 Barclays Capital Futures
2 Chi-East
3 Citigroup Global Markets Singapore
4 Credit Suisse Securities Singapore
5 DBS Vickers Securities Singapore
6 Deutsche Futures Singapore
7 DMG and Partners Securities
8 Fortis Bank Global Clearing, N.V.
9 Goldman Sachs Futures
10 Interactive Data Real-Time Services
11 Kim Eng Securities
12 Merrill Lynch Singapore
13 Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Securities
14 N2N Connect
15 Newedge Financial Singapore
16 Nomura Securities Singapore
17 OCBC Securities
18 Phillip Securities
19 RTS Realtime Systems
20 Sungard
21 UOBF Schneider Trading

SGX invests $250 million to offer fastest access to Asia

Singapore Exchange (SGX) today announced a $250 million plan to strengthen Singapore’s position as the best market for accessing Asia.

The new initiative, dubbed Reach, will create the world’s fastest trading engine with the lowest trading latency, establish a world-class data centre for SGX and seamlessly connect trading communities in global financial hubs to Singapore. Reach will be rolled out from the first quarter of 2011.

“The resulting trading environment will be ideal for global investors, including sophisticated traders and participants new to the region. It will bring better liquidity and greater velocity to the market, enhancing SGX’s position as the Asian Gateway,” says SGX.

SGX’s new trading engine will be delivered through NASDAQ OMX’s Genium INET platform, Voltaire’s InfiniBand solution and HP’s technology. On May 7, SGX conducted a benchmark test with its partners at HP's Singapore Capacity Planning Centre and established an average order response time of 90 micro-seconds “door-to- door”.

The new SGX data centre — a state-of-the-art facility at Keppel Digihub — will house SGX’s trading, market data and clearing infrastructure and offer a wide range of co-location facilities, introducing ultra-low latency trading and market data.

The Reach initiative also includes establishing a presence at key data centres in Chicago, London, New York and Tokyo. These SGX hubs will lower cross- border connectivity costs to SGX and facilitate participation in Asia’s growing markets by a larger number of global trading firms

Singapore Exchange to offer world’s fastest trading

Singapore Exchange, operator of the city’s derivatives and securities exchange, will introduce the world’s fastest trading system by the first quarter of next year, its chief executive said.

“This will put us from the middle of the pack to the leader of the pack,” Magnus Bocker, chief executive officer of SGX, said at a media and analyst briefing today. “We hope to attract more high-frequency traders.”

The bourse will invest $250 million in the new system, which can execute transactions in 90 microseconds, the fastest in the world, according to a company statement. The current system takes between 3 and 5 milliseconds to execute trades, Bocker said at a media and analyst briefing today. Nasdaq OMX Group Inc., Bocker’s former employer, is supplying the new trading platform. A microsecond is one millionth of a second. A millisecond is one thousandth.

Exchanges worldwide have been building networks in response to competition from alternative trading systems such as dark pools and other off-exchange platforms. The growth of dark pools, which offer anonymous trading and don’t display public quotes, in Asia has lagged behind that of the U.S. and Europe as Asian regulators have been slow to accept such systems, John Feng, New York-based managing director of research company Greenwich Associates, said on March 9.

Rivals Upgrade Systems
High-frequency trading already accounted for about 30% of business on Singapore’s exchange, Bocker said. The current fastest system is run by Nasdaq and takes 177 microseconds to execute trades, according to Bob Caisley, head of technology at Singapore Exchange.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, operator of Asia’s third-biggest stock market, said on May 13 it will upgrade its trading system next year to boost speed and capture capital flows from China. The bourse will roll out a trading system by the end of 2011 that can process 15,000 transactions per second, up from 3,000 transactions per second.

ASX, which runs Australia’s largest stock exchange, said in February it will introduce a trading platform that will cut the average time to execute trades to 250 microseconds from three milliseconds. The Tokyo Stock Exchange introduced in January the Arrowhead trading system, which slashed to five milliseconds the time needed to process orders, from two to three seconds previously.

Chi-East, Asia’s first exchange-backed dark pool, will start operations by the second half of this year, Bocker said troday. Singapore Exchange has partnered with Chi-X Global Inc. to develop the platform.

Dark pools have been criticised by Ronald Arculli, chairman of the Hong Kong bourse, because they are not regulated and lack transparency

SGX signs $110m IT infrastructure deal with HCL Technologies

Singapore Exchange (SGX) and HCL Technologies (HCL), a leading global IT services provider, today said they have signed a five-year IT infrastructure outsourcing agreement worth $110 million.

Under the deal, HCL will provide SGX with infrastructure support and management services including the exchange’s Reach initiative. The $250 million Reach initiative announced on 3 June aims to create the world’s fastest trading engine, establish a state-of-the-art data centre offering co-location facilities and seamlessly connect trading communities in global financial hubs to Singapore

CNBC.Com Market Outlook

Airtime: Sat. Jun. 12 2010 | 4:30 AM ET
CNBC's Courtney Reagan highlights the week's top business news stories, tells viewers what stocks the pros are recommending and looks ahead to next week's headlines.

Big Time Bulls

Airtime: Sat. Jun. 12 2010 | 7:48 AM ET
Discussing the risks in market, possibly holding back an economic recovery, with Fritz Meyer, Invesco and CNBC's Dennis Kneale

Bloomberg Video News

Google HongKong Share Service

Jim Roggers Opinion on Euro

EU Debt Crisis - Now May Be the Time to Buy the Euro: Jim Rogers - CNBC

EU Debt Crisis - Now May Be the Time to Buy the Euro: Jim Rogers - CNBC

Sunning Tech

Entered trade at 0.215 after yesterday strong surged of > 7%. based on chart reading. The price shall meet some selling pressure at 0.24 the last congestion areas around Apr and May.

Once the price clear the 0.24 shall see immediately year high resistance at 0.285... Again based on TA Sunning Tech shall be able to break 0.285 and heading for a breakout runs.

vested interest

BP Oil Spills

PEC

Still trending strongly with the long term support trend line.

SeeHS is breaking the double bottom neckline at 0.33

SeeHS, price is approching the double bottom neckline at 0.33, A break of 0.33 neckline will likely to send the price to 0.41 or 24% from current price (0.33). SL at 0.31

Can Biosensor breaking the multilayer resistance at 0.805?

Biosensors after hit year high 0.9 on 19 Jan 2010 price has been slowly drifted back to recent low of 0.69 on 31 Mar 2010... A whopping 0.21 cents or 23.3% retracement from year's high. however from the weekly chart, Bio's long term uptrend is well supported at 0.7 and today the strong reversal will likely to challenge the multi-layers resistance from the year high resistance and also the 1st rebound resistance from last correction. Since both resistance are conjested at 0.805.. thus my take is I will closely monitor Bio ability to cross 0.805 with justifyable vol. else Bio still have chance to pull back to <0.74 now just keep the finger cross.. :)

PS: morning just QIQO from 0.775 and sold at 0.795 for some pocket money.

PEC -- Ready for next Bull Run!

PEC after +DI positively placed (1st arrow) and gaining momentum after >30 the price began the strong surge from 0.69 to 0.82 app.. 19% gains. However the price after hit the historical symetical triangle resistance was being thown down to the support line.Now the history is going to repeat again. The +DI (2nd Arrow)is approching the 30 mark again and ADX is poiting up which signify an increased in up trend momentum. But this time maybe totally difference. The price (Candle)now finally break away from the historical symetical triangle and the price consodilation is almost 100% filled the triangle squeezee area... PEC may move really fast if >0.81 and shall be able to cross 0.85 with ease and finaly the breakout at 0.96 before approching the 1.05 final target derive from symetical triangle price measurement. vested interest at 0.77

PEC

PEC after spiked from Ipo at 40 cents and hit historical high of 0.95 on 2009 Sep 01 and hit low at 0.595 on 5 Nov 2009 since then PEC had been trading within the symetical triangle pattern for >75% triangle filled.. Now chart reading is poiting a break out at 0.79 with price measurement of 1.05!!! Hold tight !!!

Which Is Better, Trading Or Investing?

Are there are any stocks to speculate with a 1 – 3 months horizon? How about stocks to buy and hold for up to 2 years? Any recommendations? These are some of the queries, which are posed by readers and friends.

It is noteworthy that the above questions represent two different approaches and views on the stock market. Before I point out some “tips” for the two approaches, I would like to draw readers’ attention to their differences, which are tabulated below.

Having appreciated the differences, I will now elaborate on the criteria to pick stocks for trading, as well as, buy and hold approaches.

Criteria to pick stocks for trading purposes

Presence of near term re-rating catalysts
There should be presence of re-rating catalysts in the near term. An excellent example would be dual listing. Typically, this should provide at least a short term boost to share prices, especially if companies are sound and are trading at price to earnings ratio lower than their counterparts in the stock exchange which they are going to list. Z-Obee is a case in point where its share price more than tripled since its announcement on dual listing.

Secondly, the industry in which the companies are operating in should be growing at phenomenal rates. It would be better if the companies’ peers are reporting better than expected results. This would increase the possibility of earnings surprise for the companies for this quarter and upside guidance for the coming quarter from the companies, spurring a re-rating of share prices. To be clear, the industry should be growing at phenomenal rates and not sustainable rates. Thus, it is not required to find companies which are growing steadily at 10% a year, but is required to find companies which are growing at least 30% y-o-y for the current quarter and next quarter.

Thirdly, if one is aware of the contracts bidding from the companies, one should be able to estimate when the contract wins would be announced. If I take Swiber as an example, an investor who is familiar with it should know that Swiber’s contract awarding period in South Asia and Southeast Asia is usually around Dec to Mar. Couple this with the improvements in the oil and gas industry, one should not be too surprised that Swiber announced a string of contracts during that period. Nevertheless, there is a fair level of risk in this prediction.

Fourthly, for companies with blockbuster products which are expected to have significant contribution in the near term may also be considered as stocks for trading purposes. These companies have the potential to enjoy a significant boost to earnings which may result in an upwards re-rating of shares.

Propaganda on the stocks
If readers want to trade, then a prerequisite would be to choose stocks which have propaganda. Examples of such would be plant visits and road shows where fund managers and analysts can get to know the company and company management better. Analysts typically will write analyst reports or some internal notes after such visits. Stocks which are good to trade should also have some “stories or some attention catching ideas” to excite the investment community. An example of such stock is KS Energy where it soared multiple folds when it announced that it would modify its business model from being solely a distributor of consumable oil parts to a rig refurbisher in 2005.

Technicals
This is a colossal topic to discuss here. Suffice it to say that the charts should look strong, indicators well placed, and price movement confirmed with volume and price action. As a result, traders may buy the stock at a relatively high price (as measured by valuation metrics such as high PE ratio against the peers) and sell it higher.

Criteria to pick stocks for investing purposes

For investors who are looking to buy and hold with a horizon of up to 2 years, it would be good to consider the following points:

Competent management – necessity for buy and hold

Management should be competent so as to manage the company well over the medium to long term. Over the short term, management competency can be masked by non recurring items such as executing seemingly earnings accretive acquisitions which boost the company’s results in the short term, or create propaganda so as to create interest in the stock. However, only time will tell whether these actions create shareholder value. Thus, if readers want to buy and hold over a longer period of time, it is pertinent to find a company managed by competent management.

Sustainable earnings and outlook

For this strategy, it is a prerequisite to find companies with predictable financial performance. To have predictable performance, the companies should have the following characteristics.

Firstly, the companies should operate in industries which are growing steadily. They should not be in industries with limited visibility or in cyclical industries. For example, the foundry companies typically have limited visibility and it would be wise to avoid them with a buy and hold strategy. In 2007, the automotive companies’ shares soared at the top of the industry cycle but subsequently fell due to over supply of wheels and lack of demand. Therefore, it is best to avoid industries with limited visibility or in cyclical industries.

Secondly, besides having a stable growing industry, it is important to buy companies whose earnings are predictable due to their business model. Companies whose earnings gyrate widely due to changes in demand should be avoided as these companies involve more monitoring and attention to hold this kind of shares. Nonetheless, if readers can determine that the companies’ lackluster results are once off and they are likely to post better results for the next few quarters, readers can still consider to invest in these companies.

Margin of safety
Buy and hold is typically a more conservative strategy than trading. Thus, it is important to reduce risk by having a good entry price, so as to have a good margin of safety. This is one of the tenets which Benjamin Grahman advocates.

Dividend yield
This is a good criterion to have as it generates income while holding your stocks till they reach your target price. In addition, it creates at least some incentive to continue holding while some of your friends may have obtained quick gains (as well as losses) in the market.

Conclusion – which approach is better?
To decide which approach is better, it depends on the horizon that one has. Different strokes for different folks so which approach suit you? It’s up to the individual reader to decide.

1 For the purpose of this article, buy and hold is synonymous with investing and entails a horizon of 4 months to 2 years. 2 years were chosen as there is considerable difficulty to predict beyond 2 years for the average retail investors


Ernest Lim currently works as an assistant treasury and investment manager. Prior to this role, he was with Legacy Capital Group Pte Ltd, a boutique asset management and private equity firm, as an investment manager since 2006. He received a Bachelor of Accountancy (Honours) from Nanyang Technological University in 2005. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst, as well as, a Certified Public Accountant Singapore

PEC

PEC after recently price surged to high of 0.81. now price is range trade within 0.81 to 0.775... The vol is also declining during the price consodilation phase and we view this is as a positive sign. As long as the price can stay above the 0.77. PEC will have a high chance to break the 0.81 and heading to next target 0.84...however we need to monitor closely for the T+5 deu. especially after Friday the T+5 due date we shall able to see the final move of PEC. personnally I fell is safe to collect at pullback level. ideally is around 0.775 to 0.785 level and SL can set at 0.77... vested interest.

Longcheer

Keyimprovements delivered during the year 2009 result included:
• A 467% increase in cash generated from operations from
RMB 30.5 million in FY2008 to RMB 172.9 million in FY2009
• A 53% decrease in inventory levels
• A 19% increase in net asset value (“NAV”) per share to RMB
1.84 per share

Chart wise, the price has finally penerate the traingle squeezee and with immedaite price target of 0.64 and 0.775 respectively.

Stop loss o.57

CPO

Shares of Asia’s palm plantation companies have rallied over the last one year, riding a rebound in the prices of crude palm oil (CPO) due to lower seasonal production and dry weather conditions.

However, growth of at least 50% in the plantations index has lagged a rise of 55% in Malaysia’s benchmark index fuelled by bank stocks after the central bank raised interest rates last week.

And CPO prices may not stay high much longer because temperatures are set to cool and soybean oil, a rival vegetable oil, is expected to flood the market in the second quarter from a bumper harvest in South America.

Benchmark CPO futures on the Malaysian derivatives exchange are now trading at around 2,680 ringgit ($1,124) a tonne, or about 40% off a March 2008 record of 4,486 ringgit.

A January Reuters poll showed that average palm oil prices in Asia were set to rise more slowly this year and the next as gains from strong global demand are curbed by record vegetable oil output.

SOYOIL, WEATHER
CPO prices are expected to face significant downward pressure in April when a bumper crop of South American soybean is harvested, analysts said.

Palm oil, a cheaper substitute, is now trading at a 5% discount to soybean oil and if that gap narrows, analysts expect consumers to switch from CPO to soy oil, a healthier option.

Macquarie Research said the rebound in plantation stocks gave investors a good opportunity to reduce their exposure.

It rated IOI and Sime Darby as underperformers because both trade at 18 times 2010 earnings in a sector that trades at an average multiple of 17, and have the lowest production growth over the next three years.

“We believe the recent strength in CPO prices is largely seasonal, with the trend likely to reverse from the second quarter onwards,” it said in a note last week.

Concerns that recent dry weather will limit CPO production and keep prices high may be misplaced as plantation owners have not reported any abnormal impact from the lack of rainfall, said analysts.

The Malaysian Meteorological Department reported lower-than-usual rainfall in February, but it is predicting average to above average rainfall from April.

Drier-than-normal weather worsens biological tree stress and reduces the amount of fruit produced by a tree to make palm oil.

Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore are the only markets in the world where stocks of palm plantation companies are traded. Shares of Indonesia’s Indofood Agri jumped the most, up 310% from a year ago, followed by London Sumatra, up 183%. Singapore’s Wilmar, the world’s largest palm oil producer, rose 126% and Sime gained 57%

“The weather is one factor that cannot be predicted, but our view is that plantation stocks will still do well this year,” said Ang Kok Heng, chief investment officer at Phillip Capital Management.

Strong consumption growth in China and India, the world’s top two importers of palm oil, will hold up demand for the vegetable oil this year, he said.

Global demand for CPO in January jumped 19.4% to 1.46 million tonnes, driven mostly by China’s stocking for the Lunar New Year.

Investors looking for long-term exposure to the sector should consider mid-cap Malaysian planters, such as IJM Plantations and Kulim, said Ang.

“There are opportunities to add (buy),” he said.

Standard Chartered Research, which recently initiated coverage of the plantation sector, is recommending a “buy” on the purer plantation companies.

“With their higher relative plantation exposure, lower valuations and higher betas, our preference is for Indonesian planters,” analyst Adrian Foulger said in a note, naming London Sumatra, Indofood Agri and Golden Agri.

HwangDBS prefers plantation stocks listed in Singapore or Indonesia over their fully-valued Malaysian peers, said David Ng, its chief investment officer.

“We are looking at non-Malaysian planters and would buy on weakness,” he said

STI chart reading

Finally the STI next direction is going to reveal soon. Last week analysis mentioned that if STI when crossover 2797 will ragain the upward momentun. 2808 and 2840 the Fibo 50% and 38.2% retracement. However if STI aboe to corss over 2888 or the 23.6% retracement will signify the potential for STI to break the new high recorded last year. at 2947....

The Singapore stock market has finished higher now in two of four trading days since the end of the modest two-day winning streak in which it had gathered nearly 25 points or 0.9 percent in the process. The Straits Times Index moved above the 2,790-point plateau, and now analysts are expecting more upside at the opening of trade on Monday.

The global forecast for the Asian markets is broadly positive, thanks particularly to better than expected data from the United States. A surge in commodity prices also is expected to provide support, along with steel, financial, technology and property stocks. The European and U.S. markets ended solidly higher on Friday, and now the Asian bourses are expected to follow suit.

The STI finished sharply higher on Friday, thanks to gains among the gaming stocks and financial shares.

For the day, the index collected 21.59 points or 1.3 percent to finish at 2,790.26. Genting Singapore surged 7.1 percent to lead the gainers.

The lead from Wall Street is sharply higher as stocks rose by substantial margins on Friday, thanks to news that the U.S. economy shed fewer jobs than expected in February. The major averages showed notable upward moves on the day, with the NASDAQ reaching its best closing level in well over a year.

The markets keyed in on a report from the Labor Department showing that the economy lost 36,000 jobs in February following a revised decrease of 26,000 jobs in January. The relatively modest decline surprised economists, who had expected a more substantial loss of about 68,000 jobs amid the impact of severe winter weather in parts of the country.

The report also revealed that the unemployment rate in February remained unchanged from the previous month at 9.7 percent. The unemployment rate had been expected to tick up to 9.8 percent.

The markets were able to build on their already strong gains after the Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit unexpectedly showed a modest increase in the month of January. Consumer credit increased by about $5.0 billion in January following a revised decrease of about $4.6 billion in December. The increase came as a surprise to economists, who had expected credit to decrease by about $4.5 billion.

With the unexpected increase, consumer credit rose for the first time since January 2009, marking the biggest increase since July of 2008.

Dow Jones

Down Jones very nice on the up trend channel.. once break the 10470 with mark the new up trend...

Biosensors

Biosensors, price is range trade from the Ceiling and Floor.
C= 0.89 & C= 0.81... during the price consodilation process it was clearly observed that the volume is declining too.. this is an healthy correction.

Trading Strategy
Buy long at 0.82 to 0.835 level... and SL is 0.81 or below..

Straistasia - Breaking Rising Wedge soon!

StraistAsia--- Chart formation is near breakdown of Rising Wedge!!!!
-di is negatively placed and ADX is poiting upward and increasing strength. avoid catching the falling knife unless you want to shortsell that will be fine.
SL =2.06 or today bar high.
Target = 1.93, 1.86 and 1.81 respectively. ultimate goal 1.63

just for case study, not an inducement to trade

Dow Jones Chart Reading

The Dow closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,197 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 10,505 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 10,438. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 10,505. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,197. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 9,983.

STI commentary

Singapore’s Straits Times Index slipped 0.6% to 2,745.07 as of the 12:30 p.m. trading break, erasing gains of as much as 0.4% earlier. Almost six stocks dropped for each that rose on the 30-member gauge.

Shares on the measure trade at 14.5 times estimated earnings, compared with about 10 times at the start of 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The following shares were among the most active in the market.

Bulk carriers: The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping commodities, fell 0.6% yesterday in London, snapping gains of 6.2% in the past six days.

Cosco Corp. Singapore (COS SP), the China-based shipbuilder that also operates bulk carriers, slipped 1.6% to $1.22. STX Pan Ocean Co. (STX SP), South Korea’s biggest bulk carrier, lost 0.7% to $14.32.

Fortune Real Estate Investment Trust (FRT SP), a shopping mall operator in Hong Kong, advanced 4.7% to HK$3.15 ($0.57), the biggest gain since Oct. 7. The company said it plans to seek a dual-primary listing in Hong Kong.

Hyflux (HYF SP), Singapore’s biggest water treatment company, fell 0.3% to $3.59, erasing gains of as much as 1.7%. DBS Group Holdings downgraded the stock to “hold” from “buy.” The company said full-year net income increased 27% to $75 million in 2009 from a year ago.

Rotary Engineering (RTRY SP), the maker of storage tanks for the oil and gas industry, climbed 3.1% to 99 cents. The company said fourth-quarter net income increased 36% to $26.2 million from a year ago.

Straits Asia Resources (SAR SP), the Indonesian coal miner part-owned by Thailand’s PTT Pcl (PTT TB), declined 3.3% to $2.07. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. downgraded the stock to “sell” from “hold” and reduced its share-price forecast to $1.73 from $2.49. The company said full-year net income rose 7% to US$133.5 million ($188.2) from a year ago.

Epure-Daily Chart Reading

Epure stoc just cut. MACD and RSI is poting up. Price has a nice pull-back and ready for next move. SL 0.76.

STI-Chart Analysis

STI Support and Resistance is at 2727 and 2797 respectively. A break of either side will determine STI the final move! Personnaly view that STI has strong bias to break the 2727 support before a double bottom rebound can be generated. however the STI year high still likely to be cap at 3000.

Ziwo- Chart Analysis

Chart Analysis- Ziwo